How Would a Kamala Harris Victory Affect The US Job Market?
A Kamala Harris victory in a future US election could bring both opportunities and challenges to the job market. With her tenure as Vice President, Harris has already worked alongside President Biden to implement economic strategies that have created jobs, increased wages, and lowered unemployment rates. If she were to be elected as president, what could the job market expect?
Job Creation & Economic Growth
One of the main outcomes of a Harris victory could be steady job creation, a continuation of the trend seen during the Biden-Harris administration. The administration oversaw the creation of over 13 million jobs in just two and a half years. Harris has repeatedly emphasised the importance of supporting small businesses, which she considers to be the backbone of the US economy. Small businesses, particularly in sectors like manufacturing, could see significant growth under her leadership.
A Mixed Impact of Wage Increases
A core feature of Harris’ economic platform is her commitment to raising the minimum wage and improving worker protections. These measures would likely lead to wage growth across multiple sectors, as wages have lagged behind inflation in recent years. Higher wages could bolster consumer spending, fuelling demand and economic expansion. However, this increase in wages might not be without drawbacks. According to some economic experts, businesses that rely on low-wage labour could be burdened by higher labour costs. This could slow growth in industries like retail, hospitality, and agriculture, which depend heavily on minimum-wage employees.
Businesses may also face increased regulatory and compliance costs due to Harris’ commitment to worker protections. While this would benefit workers by improving safety standards and job conditions, it might lead to more cautious hiring practices in heavily regulated sectors. Companies, particularly small businesses, may hesitate to expand their workforce if they perceive regulatory hurdles as too costly.
Growth in the Manufacturing Sector
Manufacturing is one of the sectors where Harris’ policies could have the most noticeable impact. She and Biden have already invested billions in reviving American manufacturing, which has historically been an essential part of the US economy. Under a Harris presidency, this sector might receive further attention, as Harris has stressed the importance of supporting domestic production. By focusing on American-made goods, particularly in critical industries like semiconductors, clean energy, and electric vehicles, manufacturing could experience a resurgence.
Given that many of these manufacturing companies are small businesses, Harris’ investment could lead to increased job creation and economic growth. However, it is essential to recognise that the manufacturing sector is heavily dependent on global trade. If international relations become strained, the US manufacturing industry might encounter obstacles to growth.
Unemployment & Long-Term Workforce
The US job market could continue to benefit from low unemployment rates if Harris’ policies follow the current trajectory. The Biden-Harris administration has already brought unemployment levels to near-record lows, and with ongoing efforts to stimulate the economy, these figures could remain stable or even improve. The focus on enhancing education, workforce training and job readiness programmes will help workers stay competitive in a rapidly evolving job market.
However, the future workforce might face challenges related to automation and artificial intelligence, areas where job displacement is a growing concern. While automation can benefit productivity, it could also result in job losses in sectors like manufacturing, retail, and transportation. If Harris addresses this challenge by promoting retraining programmes, affected workers could transition into new roles in technology and other emerging industries.
Sector Set To See Growth
Several industries are positioned for growth under a Harris presidency. The tech sector, already thriving due to advancements in artificial intelligence, cybersecurity, and data analytics, could see further expansion with Harris’ support for innovation. Clean energy is another industry where Harris is likely to focus. With climate change being a significant part of her platform, investments in solar, wind, and other renewable energy sources could create new job opportunities in engineering, installation, and maintenance.
Healthcare may also see continued growth, particularly in light of an ageing population and ongoing public health challenges. The pandemic underscored the importance of having a robust healthcare workforce, and Harris’ leadership might prioritise strengthening this sector through job creation and expanded access to healthcare services.
So, What Does The Future Look Like?
A Kamala Harris presidency would likely bring both continuity and innovation to the US job market. Through targeted investments in manufacturing, small businesses and workforce training, Harris could create an environment of job creation and economic growth. While challenges such as increased regulation and wage inflation might slow growth in certain industries, the long-term outlook for the US job market appears promising under her leadership. Key sectors like technology, clean energy, and healthcare are poised to thrive, offering well-paying jobs to millions of Americans.
Author: Mark Ollerton
