What Another Trump Term Could Mean for the U.S. Job Market
We’re only a couple of months away from one of the biggest elections in history. Debates are intensifying, and the impact of Trump’s leadership is on everyone’s minds. The US economy is in for a major shakeup, particularly the job market.
Trump’s first term saw huge changes in economic policy, and a second term would only amplify these shifts. While his supporters fail to see anything other than miracles from him, critics strongly argue that his policies have and will exacerbate inequality, favour the wealthy and threaten long-term job security. In this blog, we’ll discuss a few aspects of what another Trump presidency could mean for the US job market. Should you be worried? Let’s see.
Deregulation
One of Trump’s main policies during his first term was deregulation. He rolled back numerous environmental, financial and labour regulations, claiming that such actions would unleash the full potential of American businesses and lead to job creation. Indeed, some sectors, particularly oil, gas, and manufacturing, saw a boom in job opportunities as companies faced fewer regulatory hurdles.
Should Trump return to the Oval Office, it is almost certain that he would double down on this strategy. For industries such as fossil fuels, construction and heavy manufacturing, this would likely result in a surge of jobs as companies take advantage of a lax regulatory environment. Lower compliance costs encourage companies to invest more in expanding their workforce.
However, the long-term consequences of such deregulation are far less clear. Critics warn that rolling back environmental protections could accelerate climate change, which would harm industries like agriculture, tourism and insurance. In addition, fewer worker protections could lead to dangerous working conditions and stagnant wages for low-skilled labourers.
Immigration
Trump’s hardline stance on immigration was one of the most polarizing aspects of his presidency. He built his platform on securing the US borders and reducing the number of foreign workers entering the country, particularly through programs like H-1B visas, which allow companies to hire skilled foreign workers. During his first term, immigration policies tightened significantly, and businesses in tech, agriculture, and service industries complained about labour shortages as a result.
If Trump wins another term, a continuation of these restrictive immigration policies could have mixed effects on the job market. On one hand, reducing the influx of foreign workers could potentially lead to higher wages and more job opportunities for native-born Americans, especially in low-wage sectors like hospitality and food service. This appeals to many of Trump’s working-class supporters, who believe that unchecked immigration suppresses wages.
On the other hand, industries that rely on both skilled and unskilled immigrant labour, such as tech and agriculture, could face significant disruptions. The tech industry, in particular, is heavily reliant on foreign talent to fill gaps in STEM (science, technology, engineering, and mathematics) fields. A restrictive immigration policy could exacerbate the existing skills gap, leading to a slowdown in innovation and competitiveness. In the agriculture sector, where a large portion of the workforce consists of immigrants, labour shortages could drive up food prices and disrupt supply chains.
Automation
One area where Trump’s economic policy has remained relatively silent is on the issue of automation and the future of work. As industries like retail, transportation, and manufacturing continue to automate, many jobs, particularly low-wage, repetitive tasks, are at risk of disappearing.
In the second term, it’s unclear whether Trump will address this growing issue. Some argue that his focus on traditional industries like coal and manufacturing is short-sighted, as these sectors are among the most vulnerable to automation. Without significant investment in retraining programs and education for workers displaced by technology, the US job market could face a crisis of mass unemployment in the coming decades, regardless of short-term gains from deregulation and tax cuts.
What Will The Future Look Like?
A second Trump presidency would undoubtedly bring significant changes to the US job market, but whether those changes would benefit the majority of workers remains a subject of intense debate. While certain sectors may thrive under Trump’s deregulatory and pro-business policies, others could suffer as a result of his immigration policies, leading to labour shortages. As with much of Trump’s presidency, the impact on jobs would likely be controversial, divisive, and far-reaching.
Ultimately, the US job market under another Trump term could experience short-term gains for some, but the long-term consequences may be less certain—and far more disruptive than they first appear.
Author: Mark Ollerton
